Sources of the indicators are as follows:
- Conflict indicators: The base data used was Monty G Marshall, ‘Major Episodes of Political Violence 1946-2007' (Center for Systemic Peace, 2007) and, for self-determination conflicts, Monty G Marshall and Ted R Gurr, ‘Peace and Conflict 2005' (CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2005) updated for 2007 using figures from Center for Systemic Peace, MRG and the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research.
Self-determinations conflicts in 2007 were ranked on a scale of 0-5 as follows: 5=ongoing armed conflict; 4=contained armed conflict; 3=settled armed conflict; 2=militant politics; 1=conventional politics. Major armed conflicts were classified as 2=ongoing in late 2007; 1=emerging from conflict since 2004 or ongoing conflict with deaths under 1,000. - Prior genocide or politicide: Harff, US Political Instability Task Force (formerly State Failure Task Force). 1=one or more episodes since 1945.
- Indicators of Group Division: Failed States Index, Fund for Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007.
- Democracy/Governance Indicators: Annual Governance Indicators, World Bank, 2007.
- OECD country risk classification: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, ‘Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits', October 2007. Where no classification is given, a value of 8 was accorded.
Indicators were rebased as necessary to give an equal weighting to the five categories above, with the exception of the prior geno-/politicide indicator. As a dichotomous variable this received a lesser weighting to avoid too great a distortion to the final ranking. Resulting values were then summed.
The full formula is:
(A/2) + (Bx1.25) + (Cx2) + (D+E+F)/6 + (G+H+I)/-1 + (Jx0.625)
Note that Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories is ranked artificially low as some of the indicators only apply to the state of Israel and not to the OPT.
Select a region, specific country or a minority group: